Mar
Ma Wins Taiwan Presidential Race on Vow to Improve China Ties
By James Peng and Tim Culpan
March 22 (Bloomberg) — Ma Ying-jeou won Taiwan’s presidential election, vowing to improve ties with China after eight years of pro-independence rule by Chen Shui-bian.
Ma led the Democratic Progressive Party’s Frank Hsieh 58 percent to 42 percent with 99.6 percent of precincts reporting as of 6:55 p.m. Taipei time, according to the Central Election Commission. Ma is scheduled to speak at KMT headquarters at 7:30 p.m., according to CTI TV. About 75 percent of Taiwan’s eligible voters were expected to cast ballots, according to the Election Commission. Polls closed at 4 p.m.
Both candidates advocate closer mainland ties, so the election pits Ma’s quicker approach against Hsieh’s more cautious tack. Hsieh has tried to portray Ma’s policies — such as a pledge to work toward a peace treaty with the mainland –as exposing Taiwan to situations such as China’s crackdown on pro- independence protests in Tibet.
“Taiwan is not Hong Kong, nor is it Tibet,” Ma said today after he voted. “We’ll keep Taiwan running just as it is.”
A Kuomintang victory would mean “Taiwanese agree with Ma’s friendlier approach to China,” Li Mingiang, a professor at Singapore-based Nanyang Technological University, said at Election Commission headquarters. “If Ma wins by 10 percentage points, that will give him a strong mandate to push forward his China policies.” Li is part of an international team observing the election.
`Bring Peace’
Investors see good news no matter who wins. The candidates’ pledges to ease investment and travel restrictions already have helped Taiwan stocks outperform other Asian equities. As of March 20, Taiwan’s benchmark Taiex index is up 3.6 percent in dollar terms this year, compared with the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 14.9 percent loss.
The Taiex index rose 2.3 percent to a two-week high at the 1:30 p.m. close in Taipei yesterday, while the Taiwan dollar climbed 0.5 percent against the U.S. dollar.
“Both of them are going to bring peace,” said Jim Rogers, co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum Hedge Fund, explaining in a Bloomberg Television interview his decision to invest in the island.
The parties of Ma, 57, and Hsieh, 61, long have advocated different approaches to China. Ma’s KMT, founded by mainlanders, has eschewed provocative calls for independence and argued that restrictions on business ties to China rob Taiwan of economic opportunities.
“If I win, I will soon start discussions with the Chinese authorities on matters of normalizing economic relations, peace and international space for Taiwan,” Ma said today.
Economic Distance
Hsieh’s DPP, especially during Chen’s eight years as president, has advocated independence and economic distance from China, lest Taiwan become too dependent on a sworn enemy that considers the island part of its territory. Hsieh has said he backs “strengthening ties with China, but we shouldn’t put all our hope and focus on the country.”
During the campaign, the two sides moved closer on the issue, sometimes seeming to cross into each other’s traditional policy turf.
“We want to move fast, but not too fast,” Ma said in the interview, ruling out meeting Chinese President Hu Jintao in his first four-year term. Hsieh in February promised to invite Hu to Taiwan for talks on “non-controversial” issues.
“The realities are both candidates want an autonomous Taiwan,” Robert Broadfoot, managing director of Political & Economic Risk Consultancy, said in an interview. “You’ve seen recently where Ma’s really had to stress the autonomy to go for that middle of the road voter.”
Direct Links
Both candidates promise more charter flights to the mainland. Taiwan has restricted direct shipping, air and postal links with the mainland since 1949, when the Kuomintang fled to the island after losing a civil war with the Communists. Traveling to the mainland can take as long as a trip to Indonesia, Ma said, adding: “This is really very, very stupid.”
Ma plans to allow more Chinese tourists into Taiwan, which may boost visitor arrivals to 3.6 million in 2009, up from last year’s 270,000, according to Citibank head of Taiwan research Peter Kurz.
Direct air links “will start another hotel building boom,” said Douglas Hsu, chairman of Taiwan’s Far Eastern Group, which has textile, shipping, banking and retail businesses. “All of these visitors have to stay somewhere, and all of them will have to shop.”
Icy relations with China prevented Taiwan’s economy “from capturing the full benefit of being next to one of the fastest growing economies in the world,” said Tony Phoo, Taiwan economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Taipei.
Investment Limits
Under the island’s investment limits, Taiwanese companies can’t put more than 40 percent of their net value into China. Taiwan allows only limited mainland investments in real estate and none in its businesses.
Ma has said he wants to allow Taiwanese companies to invest more of their assets in China within a year. A China policy paper on the Web site of Hsieh’s DPP says “the current passive restriction policy can be gradually adjusted.”
“Ma’s proposals create a more favorable backdrop for economic growth,” said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia-Pacific economist for Societe Generale in Hong Kong. “Taiwan assets will look more attractive to international investors.”
To contact the reporter on this story: James Peng in Taipei at jpeng7@bloomberg.net; Tim Culpan in Taipei at tculpan1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: March 22, 2008 07:00 EDT
Source : www.bloomberg.com
Tags: taiwan election, taiwan election 2008, taiwan election results, taiwan elections, taiwan newspapers
